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- In this text, I want to state my vision
of how the development of outer space will take place, which,
I am sure, will happen in the next 20 years. I mean the real
development of outer space, with permanent, developing,
economically advantageous colonies on the Moon, Mars, and
not as now.
- I do not think that everything will
happen as planned by Elon Mask,
NASA and other colonizers - it is already clear that many of
their plans are not feasible with the current level of
development of technology, industry, and economy. For
example, I'm quite sure that first the colony will be
founded and developed on the Moon, and only then on Mars,
although Mars will not be very needed in the next 20-50
years. In addition, I am quite sure that laser-mirror
accelerators, described in the famous Lubin-Milner-Hawking
initiative (
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breakthrough_Starshot ),
will be the main way to create traction for transporting
goods to the far space. but not BFR, as Elon
Mask thinks. And this method of accelerating the spacecraft
was intended for micro chambers from a single chip and
weighing several grams, it is quite clear that this method
is perfect for large spacecraft with a person on board. Even
a superficial analysis of all possible ways of creating
thrust shows that laser acceleration has, in principle, no
alternative. Some significant steps in this direction are
being taken now, if anyone is interested, I will later tell
you what I'm talking about.
- To begin with, I want to sort out some
real, but not so significant, obstacles to space
exploration, as space experts say to us over the past few
years. In this material, I will begin with cosmic radiation,
which, at first glance, makes it almost impossible for a
flight to Mars and a long stay on it. Indeed, both the
galactic radiation and the radiation of the Sun during its
increased activity have a large power - but it consists for
the most part of charged particles, which can perfectly
deviate from the protected objects by an ordinary magnetic
field. The main question here is how to make the heavy
charged particles deflected by the magnetic field go away
from the protected object and not hit it, causing a shower
of particles of the next generation? To do this, the
magnetic field must be very intense and at the same time
extended. In terms of the intensity of the problems for a
long time there is no - this is solved using magnets on
alloys with rare earth elements (neodymium). To create an
extended field we will be helped by an open magnetic field
circuit - a field created by a magnet with the ends of the
magnetic circuit maximally spaced in opposite directions (by
180 deg.). In conditions of space during a flight, it is
difficult to create such a magnetic circuit for a number of
reasons - but this is not necessary if the flight does not
last for months but days or weeks, which will happen due to
laser accelerators. But with a long stay on Mars, such a
magnetic protection is quite possible and necessary, and we
can even calculate the minimum weight of the necessary
components for this. To create an open magnetic field, an
iron wire with a diameter even of the order of a few
millimeters is quite suitable. Calculate how much will weigh
the magnetic circuit length of a kilometer, for example - it
will be enough to protect the colony in the first time.
Let's take the area of the section of iron wire in 4 square
meters. mm (standard cross-section), the diameter will be
approximately 2.2 mm, according to the table for such a wire
(available on the Internet) we learn that the weight of 1 km
of wire will be approximately 30 kg. Let's add the weight of
a rare-earth magnet in 1-2 kg - total 31-31 kg, it is quite
acceptable, I believe. In addition to protecting against
charged particles of cosmic radiation, we will get a number
of nice options. For example, an extended magnetic circuit
can be used as a conductor to transmit electricity from
generating power (on Mars it will be a mini-nuclear power
plant), paired with yet another conductor to close the
circuit. In addition, the magnetic attraction will draw
magnetic (Mars) dust from the surrounding magnetic circuit
of the surface of Mars or the Moon, which can be regularly
collected and remelted to produce iron and building
materials for the colony. Considering what kind of dust
storms there are on Mars, you can safely expect the sticking
of a thick layer of dust onto the magnetic circuit, under
which it will not be visible. This may well be the beginning
of a fully paid off metallurgical industry on Mars. In
addition, as a rule, iron-bearing rocks also often contain
in their composition various valuable rare earth elements -
this means that the flight for an asteroid of gold can be
postponed - it will be easier and cheaper to mine gold on
Mars. The same deflecting deflecting magnetic system is also
possible on the Moon, and with the same additional functions
- the transmission of electricity to the colony from the
generating capacity (on the Moon it will be solar power
stations) and the collection of iron-containing dust. On the
moon, the metallurgical industry will pay off much faster
than on Mars for a number of reasons - the moon is much more
convenient for creating on its industry the production of
steel and aluminum and the production of spacecraft for them
to colonize the same Mars and other purposes. At the same
time, when collecting lunar dust for remelting and obtaining
oxygen and helium-3 from it, there will be great
difficulties associated with the absence of an atmosphere
and high electrization of this dust, and hence its adhesion.
Do not suck it with a vacuum cleaner, as on Earth, and do
not clean off later with a tool and a spacesuit or a robot
picker. But the magnetic separation and collection of
iron-containing dust is extremely convenient and cheap, and
will undoubtedly be used on the Moon. With lunar dust is
another problem, described even during the missions of the
Apollo - it is harmful to humans and easily penetrates into
spacesuits and inhabited volume, causes increased wear of
machinery, covers solar cells over time and reduces the
generation of electricity. Undoubtedly, it will interfere
with future optical telescopes on the Moon, which will
necessarily appear there, as well as other scientific
projects. All this means that the problem will arise of
clearing the surface of the Moon from the dust in the area
of the inhabited colony and scientific facilities, which
will be done by the metallurgical lunar industry. At the
same time, it is extremely simple to receive energy for the
recovery and melting of metals on the Moon - it is enough to
build a solar concentrator that will direct the sunlight
entirely or only part of its spectrum into a solar furnace
where the burden of lunar dust and rock will be found. On
the Moon, it is possible to obtain oxygen from the dust when
it is reduced to oxygen for breathing colonists and
oxidizing fuel, as well as titanium, aluminum, iron, high
purity silicon, and much more (including the notorious
helium-3). On Mars, unfortunately, the focus with the solar
furnace will not work - the sunlight is too weak there, and
dust storms also happen. It will be necessary to build
powerful nuclear power plants on Mars, and not somewhere,
but at the poles - there it will turn out best.
- Let us return to the magnetic deflection
system. The ends of the magnetic circuit connected to the
magnet will need to be spread apart from the magnet, as I
wrote above, and must be fixed on the ground, because
otherwise they will be attracted to one another, squirm and
move until they finally close. For the same reason, such a
scheme is not very suitable for open space, to protect
astronauts and equipment of flying spacecraft - in order to
keep the ends of the open magnetic contour in the opposite
position, it is necessary to do some supporting power
structure of trusses and stretch marks - and this is a big
weight. Although in some cases - to protect against
long-term inhabited station radiation somewhere in the far
space, outside the Earth's radiation belts, such a scheme
will still have to be realized. On Mars or on the moon, the
magnetic circuit can be fixed directly to the ground.
- About energy on Mars.
- As it was said earlier, if we are talking
about the creation of a developed industry on Mars,
including metallurgy, the production of rocket fuel from
water - a powerful energy is required, which will
undoubtedly consist of powerful nuclear power plants -
located - suddenly - at the poles of Mars . It's all about
terramorphing, in addition to the obvious reason to have a
source of energy - if you remember, the intention of Mask
and NASA is to warm up Mars by evaporating carbon dioxide
from the polar caps of Mars and creating a greenhouse
effect. Mask even suggested, if anyone remembers, to blow up
nuclear bombs on the poles of Mars - to which he immediately
proved the uselessness of such an event. But long-term
working at the poles of nuclear power plants is quite
another matter, they will warm, of course, weakly, but
continuously, gradually increasing the temperature of the
surrounding area and evaporating carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere, and there the process will start and become
self-sustaining. Another reason for placing NPPs on the
poles is an increase in efficiency - the higher the gradient
between the coolant temperature for turbine unwinding and
the ambient ambient temperature, the easier it will be to
lose residual heat from the coolant after the turbine, the
smaller the dimensions are needed for heat exchange
surfaces, the higher the NPP efficiency. But the main reason
for the need to place powerful (on the order of hundreds of
megawatts or more) nuclear power plants on the poles is the
presence of water there - a universal coolant and raw
materials for the production of hydrogen and oxygen - rocket
fuel and energy reserves. Without such a coolant, the
operation of powerful nuclear power plants is impossible in
principle. The technology of heat dissipation for radiation
used in KiloPowers only for them
is good.
- In principle, it is even possible to
directly decompose water directly into the reactor of the
nuclear power plant - in order to increase efficiency and
simplify, cheaper construction. But the problem is that this
technology is very dangerous (explosive) and not worked out
in the conditions of the Earth, which means it is unlikely
to be used on Mars. Most likely, the scheme will be like on
Earth - a nuclear power plant with a turbine generates
electricity, which will partially go to the needs of a
colony located in the equator's area through an extended
power line (which, as we recall, will simultaneously be an
element of global magnetic radiation protection), and partly
- to electrolysis The decomposition of water into oxygen and
hydrogen, which will take place away from the plant for
safety.
- There is a serious problem in this plan,
which so far nothing has been thinking about - what will
happen at the poles of Mars in the process of their warming
up (the South Pole is more suitable for this - there is more
ice and more carbon dioxide). As we have known for a long
time, carbon dioxide and ice are located there in layers,
and during the sublimation of carbon dioxide at the pole
there will be an explosive exit of carbon dioxide from the
depths of the glacier, and if not, voids will form in the
thickness of the water ice, and it will periodically
collapse. Thus, at the initial stage of heating there will
be a real hell, and the work of such a serious system as a
powerful nuclear power plant will be impossible there. In
this case, at the initial stage of heating up the poles, we
can get a technology like KiloPower,
but a slightly different design. It should be mini-reactors
with generation on Peltier elements or Stirling engine, that
is, the most simple and reliable machines without the need
for maintenance, the main function of which will be
preheating the surrounding space in order to sublimate
carbon dioxide and prepare the relief, so that when the
construction of the main NPP, everything has already
stabilized and there have not been any unpleasant surprises,
such as an explosion of a carbon dioxide volcano in the
thickness of a Martian rock or the failure of a nuclear
power plant to empty ground excavation. Such mini-reactors
should not have any brittle protruding parts like that of
KiloPower with its thin hat of the
radiator - their form factor should be like a cube or even a
ball that will calmly roll around the frenzy of carbon
dioxide that is happening around the insanity, and nothing
it can not damage. That's just the problem is how to remove
the generated electricity from it. I think that a small
battery and a radio beacon must be located inside the
reactor so that the search robot can easily find the reactor
under the rubble of water ice. I think this technology of
super-strong nuclear power plants can be started right now,
on Earth. Moreover, it will be fully applicable on Earth.
When the active stage of Mars colonization begins, such
reactors can be started to be thrown to the poles of Mars by
hundreds directly from orbit, possibly even without a soft
landing system (if the design allows).
- As a fuel for the Martian nuclear power
plant, MOX fuel is excellent, since plutonium is much
cheaper than pure uranium, and it's stupid to put it
anywhere. For natural reasons, all the nuclear states have
accumulated huge reserves of low-enriched plutonium, which
are very dangerous and expensive to store - that's what can
be sent to Mars, and then all the nuclear weapons would be
good for peaceful purposes. For example, weapons-grade
plutonium, accumulated over the decades since the beginning
of its production, is still unsuitable for its intended
purpose - also for known natural causes.
- Of course, MOX fuel is more dangerous
than uranium - but for Mars only its structural instability
is relevant. The problem with its high toxicity for obvious
reasons for Mars is irrelevant - so far, at least. Of
course, if there is an accident at the Mars pole with MOX
fuel, and plutonium will contaminate half of the world's
water reserves, it will be very sad. Therefore, such an
industry should be placed only at one pole - so that the
water reserves from the other pole remain clean, guaranteed.
True, there is a danger that if you only heat one pole, the
carbon dioxide will simply run from one pole to the other,
and terramorphing will not work. In this case, it makes
sense to come up with a way to warm the second pole of Mars
too - but only in an environmentally friendly way.
- So, let's continue. And let's talk today
about the possible transport on Mars. As you know, smart
people immediately realized that almost all the so-called "green"
or other seemingly completely earthly projects by
Elon Mask - like Tesla or
Hyperloop
- have a clearly defined application to Mars. In fact - on
what traction can you travel on the surface of Mars?
Obviously - on electric traction, ICE there can not work -
there is no oxygen. Here Elon Mask
and fulfills different technologies on the Earth, which are
then almost ready, with minimal modifications can be used in
the colonization of Mars. This also applies to
Hyperloop
, and to Gigafabrika. But there are some problems that will
grieve Mask and his admirers - will not go to Mars Tesla.
And there are many reasons. Starting with the roads that
will be needed for it, and costing their construction will
be huge money (as on Earth), and to a low temperature at
which lithium-ion batteries stop working. The Martian relief
in comparison with the earthly one is much more crossed (as
well as on the Moon, by the way), because gravity is weaker
there, and there are almost no (in comparison with the Earth)
such important factors of relief smoothing as water and wind
erosion. All this will greatly complicate the construction
of roads, so that Tesla for Mars will not work - such cases,
Elon Mask.
Hyperloop is quite another matter, it will perfectly
fit for Mars, although without a pipe (for it is not
necessary at all), but with the same sealed trailers, and it
will probably move along two rails-energy will be supplied
for them. The same rails, as we remember from the text above,
can also be used to transfer energy from polar nuclear power
plants to equatorial settlements, and they can also be used
as magnetic circuits for the Martian radiation protection.
In general, there is nothing new in the Martian
Hyperloop
- the usual airtight train, that's just the way of
transportation will be needed for large volumes of cargo and
passengers - and how to be at the initial stages of
colonization? And here the colonists are useful another -
air transport, which we had on Earth, too, was once quite
massive - it's airships, lighter than air. About aircraft
and helicopters for obvious reasons, you can forget - but
airships for Mars are very suitable - because it is cheap
and reliable. Despite the very rarefied atmosphere of Mars,
the airships will work there - how they work on our Earth at
altitudes of 40 km - where the density of the atmosphere is
about the same as on Mars. But these airships will not be
helium, but hydrogen ones - for the carrying capacity is
greater, it is very easy to get hydrogen on Mars - out of
the water, and safely at all - there is no oxygen, hydrogen
will not have anything to burn and explode with. Well, of
course, you need some kind of propeller to get the
horizontal speed - it can be like a normal screw driven by
an electric motor, powered by batteries and solar panels.
The speed that an airship can develop in the atmosphere of
Mars can be quite high - about 100 kilometers per hour - and
all thanks to a rarefied atmosphere.
- All this will allow starting on Mars the
construction of previously mentioned different industrial
objects - nuclear power plants in the area of the pole,
factories for the production of oxygen and hydrogen from
water in the same place, metallurgy facilities near the
equator near settlements where it is warm. An efficient and
cheap transport system from hydrogen dirigibles with
autonomous control will solve the problem of coherence of
the colony at the equator and power objects on the pole
easily and simply. Designs and equipment for nuclear power
plants are produced in the area of the equator on 3D
printers from local material (where possible), using
imported components (which can not be made locally), then
transported by airships to the pole and mounted there.
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